Air aviation news – The Dubai Air Show begins Monday in the United Arab Emirates, overshadowed by the Israel-Hamas conflict raging into its second month.
As commerce takes to the narrow Middle East stage alongside war, Airbus and Boeing will compete for multibillion-dollar contracts.
Is it a time for blockbuster airplane deals?
It’s possible the war and its potential spread into a regional conflict could give some of the Gulf airlines pause before they commit to huge aircraft buying sprees.
Boeing also may worry about the potential impact of the hardening political opposition in the Arab world to U.S. support for Israel.
Yet Darren Hulst, vice president of marketing at Boeing Commercial Airplanes, in an interview said air show attendees will have the aviation industry’s long-term perspective, focusing on airplane requirements up to a decade ahead.
He pointed out that any airplanes ordered in Dubai won’t begin to be delivered until several years from now.
“Airlines are making decisions and looking at their needs over the long term,” he said. “Clearly, this is a tragic and concerning conflict, but I don’t know that people view it as a long-term factor.”
So in the coming week, at least a few big commercial jet deals are likely.
“We could see a splashy order for one of the big airlines in the region,” Bloomberg industry analyst George Ferguson wrote Friday in an air show preview.
Expectations for big widebody jet buys
To impress the gathered industry officials during the daily flying display in Dubai, Boeing test pilots will perform a series of tight maneuvers in a 777-9X test airplane.
Airbus will fly its A350-1000 that competes against the 777-9X.
On the ground, Boeing will display four 787 Dreamliners in the liveries of Qatar Airways, Etihad Airways of Abu Dhabi, and Saudia and Riyadh Air of Saudi Arabia.
Emirates of Dubai, the largest of the Gulf carriers, on Wednesday reported a net profit for the first half of the year of $2.7 billion. It is expected to announce a large widebody jet order at the air show with the Airbus A350-900 and Boeing 787 Dreamliners and 777-9Xs all in the mix.
Emirates may also adjust its order book. An existing order for 30 Boeing 787s has been in doubt for some time. The deliveries are late and Emirates has the option and may want to swap them for larger Boeing jets.
The airline’s priority is to order replacements for its 87 Airbus superjumbo A380s and 134 Boeing 777s.
So those 30 Dreamliners might be converted into some number of 777-9Xs, adding to the Emirates’ current massive order for 120 of those jets.
An additional order for 777Xs would be great news for Boeing. If Emirates also orders the rival A350-1000, that’ll be a big score for Airbus.
Turkish Airlines, aiming to challenge Emirates and the other Gulf carriers, has said it will seal a blockbuster order this year. It’s unclear if it will be ready to purchase next week. Qatar and Etihad are also possible widebody jet buyers.
The Saudis, having bought widebody jets earlier in the year, are likely to buy only single-aisle jets in Dubai, perhaps 737 MAXs.
Adam Pilarski, a senior vice president with aviation industry consulting firm Avitas, cautions that whatever big deals are made in Dubai, some may never become reality.
He suspects an expanding order bubble that will pop in a few years.
Pilarski points out that Emirates successfully built an enormous airline with a huge fleet of long-haul widebody jets on the premise that it would build in Dubai — which has a small population and tiny domestic air travel market — a geographically central hub for passengers flying between Asia, Europe and the U.S.
Yet both Qatar and Etihad are expanding on the same premise. This year, Saudi Arabia joined them in this ambition, ordering 78 Dreamliners in March.
Turkey, with a much larger population than any Gulf nation, believes Istanbul could become that central hub. Hence its plan to order hundreds of widebody jets.
And India, with the world’s largest population, this year restructured its national airline and aims to attract many of the Indians now flying on the Gulf carriers between India and Europe or the U.S.
In June, Air India ordered 40 Airbus A350s, 20 Boeing Dreamliners and 10 of the larger 777Xs.
While this frenzy makes for a surge in demand now, surely not all those airlines competing for the same traffic can succeed.
“I don’t see how all the orders will be delivered,” said Pilarski. “I think that we will find out that we over-ordered again and there will be another bubble coming.”
What’s new? Dubai is known for excess. The air show must go on.
In spite of war, deals will be made and Airbus and Boeing will vie for advantage.
