Aviation training and simulator companies expect the demand for pilots to increase faster than industry observers previously believed it would.<\/p>\n
L3Harris\u2019s forecast for pilot demand, based on data related to its academy business, indicates a need by 2030 for some 350,000 additional pilots, about a third resulting from attrition\u00a0and about two-thirds from escalating demand.\u00a0\u201cThat\u2019s a staggering number in such a short period of time,\u201d David Coward, L3Harris\u00a0v-p and general manager for\u00a0training services, told\u00a0AIN<\/strong>.<\/p>\n L3Harris\u2019s estimate implies a requirement for an average of 50,000 pilots a year over the next seven years, while Boeing\u2019s 2022-2041 forecast shows a need for 602,000 over a 20-year span, or about 30,100 new pilots a year over the longer term.<\/p>\n Coward oversees two parts of L3Harris\u2019s training business. One is ab initio\u00a0training, where the company operates academies in the UK and Florida. \u201cThis is taking students, generally at school or college age, with little or no flying experience, and progressing them through all stages of pilot training culminating in their commercial transport licenses,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n The other side of the business\u2014L3Harris\u2019s simulator training centers network\u2014operates a training facility at its London Training Centre in the UK, which it shares with the academy and where it also manufactures simulators. It has another simulator training center in Bangkok, as well as operations through a partnership with\u00a0Paramount Aviation Services in Miami.<\/p>\n \u201cWe offer end-to-end training solutions that span a pilot\u2019s entire career, from initial training as a commercial airline pilot to recurrency, type ratings, and command upgrades after that,\u201d said Coward.<\/p>\n The period spanning 2022-23 marked a significant turning point for L3Harris, post-Covid. \u201c[The year] 2021 was fairly suppressed due to the effects of Covid, but since 2022 we\u2019ve seen the industry rebound strongly as travel restrictions eased,\u201d he said. \u201cThe improvements have come in two phases; one, the number of trainees in our training programs as well as the utilization of our simulators, which are running almost at full capacity, and two, the return of airline-partnered training programs.<\/p>\n \u201cDue to demand during the pandemic, almost all airline programs ceased, but they are now being relaunched. The most recent partnership we\u2019ve announced in Europe is with Japan\u2019s All Nippon Airlines, where we\u2019re training their pilot pipeline for the future, while in the U.S. we now have 14 airline pathway partnerships running.\u201d<\/p>\n On the simulator side, as airlines purchase new aircraft to meet future demand, Coward\u00a0sees a knock-on effect for training devices, resulting in some significant wins over the past 12 months.<\/p>\n Coward said the pilot shortage could affect airline operations through day-to-day pain points, such as several well-documented flight delays this year. \u201cFurthermore, it could inhibit growth,\u201d he warned. \u201cPost-pandemic passenger demand is increasing rapidly and is predicted to return to 2019 levels in 2024 if not 2023. That demand could be derailed by the ability of airlines to position crews to service customers without a strong pipeline of pilots.\u201d<\/p>\n Covid affected flight school capacity too. In April, Scotland’s Tayside Aviation ceased\u00a0operations, taking capacity out of the training market and exacerbating the shortage. \u201cThis combination of less supply, decreasing capacity, and increased demand is going to exacerbate the challenge,\u201d noted Coward.<\/p>\n Although looming for years, the pilot shortage has worsened due to Covid\u2019s catastrophic impact on the number of aspiring pilots starting training, which, in turn, has reduced the number of graduating cadets. With post-Covid flows now starting to grow again, demand for commercial air travel has followed suit.<\/p>\n \u201cTraining carries a lead time due to the complexity involved; if airlines don\u2019t start planning for their pilot needs now, they are in danger of facing pilot shortages in the very near future,\u201d said the L3Harris executive. \u201cThe second aspect is that, as confidence returns to the aviation industry, we have seen a big rise in demand for simulator training, which puts a lot of pressure on simulator utilization.\u201d<\/p>\n The conditions to which L3Harris refers have spurred demand for pilot-hiring services. Gregory Newman, vice-president\u00a0at Wilmington, Delaware-based PilotsGlobal, reported that the company saw the most activity in North America, most notably in the U.S. Elsewhere around the world, the EU and MENA region have begun recruiting again, while Asia-Pacific airlines have\u00a0only slowly started to hire.<\/p>\n \u201cThe industry and our business outlook continue to be cautiously optimistic given the nature of the global climate as well as the traction we\u2019ve seen,\u201d he said. \u201cFrom our point of view, user traffic…is up 300 percent when comparing the first quarters of 2022 and 2023. This translates to us processing multiple thousands of pilot job applications daily, with that number only set to continue to grow.\u201d<\/p>\n Not surprisingly, the manpower shortage has led to increases in pilot salaries. Newman cited a recent agreement that would see Delta Air Lines pilots\u2019 income increase 34 percent over four years.<\/p>\n \u201cAt some of the smaller companies, we\u2019ve seen salaries being raised by 100 percent in order to stay competitive and recruit pilots and we don\u2019t see it showing any signs of stopping,\u201d he said. \u201cWe also see potential pilot strikes, which push for further pay increases and other concessions across the board from their unions as a potential temporary hiring issue, with the long-range outcome meaning a more solid footing for pilots who eventually join these unions when all of the negotiations are settled.\u201d<\/p>\n As profitability soared in 2022, major U.S. airlines were all hiring, as was the business aviation sector. \u201cWe see a fairly even split of jobs posted to PilotsGlobal\u2014airline versus corporate,\u201d he said. \u201cAlong with base compensation rising, U.S. airlines are improving benefits such as improved scheduling. In 2022, U.S. airlines hired more than 11,000 pilots; 2023 is expected to surpass 12,000 and set a new record.\u201d<\/p>\n The airlines have reevaluated this year’s summer schedules, however, and early signs pointed to some over-enthusiasm by the carriers, thanks to\u00a0restrained optimism caused by high energy prices, continued geopolitical conflict, the threat of a new resurgence of Covid-19, and a slowing global economic environment.<\/p>\n In places like the U.S., Canada, France, and Germany, where Newman cited reports of Lufthansa canceling 34,000 flights from its summer timetables, airlines pared back schedules due to a mix of staffing shortfalls, operational “meltdowns”\u00a0experienced by the likes of\u00a0U.S. carrier Southwest Airlines at the end of 2022, and inflation causing would-be passengers to reconsider their travel plans.<\/p>\n \u201cThe greatest hole we see in the market is in China, which is yet to reopen save for the Special Administration Region cases of Cathay Pacific and Air Macau, which are starting to show small signs of life,” added Newman. “Overall, China is nowhere near the capacity it could be. Additionally, there are certain flag-carrying airlines\u2014Thai, Turkish, and Egypt airlines are examples\u2014that are continuing to hire domestically in their respective regions but still haven\u2019t picked up their international hiring programs.\u201d<\/p>\n Newman said new Saudi flag carrier Riyadh Air has pushed to build its captain and first officer ranks but he added that he expected the new airline to complement, rather than challenge incumbent, Saudia. \u201cThere is great interest in these roles, and Riyadh Air has received over 1,000 referrals through PilotsGlobal,\u201d he said. \u201cOverall we don\u2019t see Riyadh hiring negatively impacting Saudia, specifically since they will both be recognized by the Kingdom as crown carriers.\u201d<\/p>\n Kit Darby of Peachtree City, Georgia-based Kit Darby Aviation Consulting, said demand for pilots in 2023 will prove fierce, and next year even more pronounced. \u201cThe U.S. market has exploded,\u201d he said. \u201cMajor airlines will hire 10,000 to 12,000 [pilots] this year. The previous record was 5,000 in the second half of last year.\u201d<\/p>\n According to Darby, U.S. regional airline SkyWest tried unsuccessfully\u00a0to drop\u00a029 cities it serves\u00a0under\u00a0essential air service contracts with the government. \u201cSkyWest lost 250-plus pilots in each of the last three months,\u201d he said. \u201cThat will be 3,000 over 12 months. They have about 5,000 pilots. That is not going to work. Southwest and JetBlue are limiting hiring due to a lack of instructors.<\/p>\n \u201cThe pilot and instructor shortages are starting to limit business and it is going to get worse before it gets better,\u201d he said. \u201cThere are no short-term solutions in sight, except foreign pilots. Many are trying the National Interest Waiver\u00a0but only a few have been approved so far. It is hard to know if it will be part of a short-term solution. The union will go nuts but there is no denying they are needed.\u201d<\/p>\n Long-term better pay, the financing of flight training, and airline bridge programs will all help, said Darby. But those efforts will take three to five years to start showing results and the problem is here and now, he believes. \u201cI have examples of pilots that have been away for 19 years returning to the major airlines after just six months at the regional,\u201d he said. \u201cPilots that have not flown in years are coming out of the woodwork but the total numbers returning to the profession are small compared to what is needed.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Aviation training and simulator companies expect the demand for pilots to increase faster than industry observers previously believed it would. L3Harris\u2019s forecast for pilot demand, based on data related to its academy business, indicates a need by 2030 for some 350,000 additional pilots, about a third resulting from attrition\u00a0and about two-thirds from escalating demand.\u00a0\u201cThat\u2019s a …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6684,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[92,102],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6682","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-airports","category-featured-en"],"yoast_head":"\n