{"id":7477,"date":"2023-08-06T08:09:30","date_gmt":"2023-08-06T08:09:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aviation-news.info\/?p=7477"},"modified":"2023-08-06T08:09:30","modified_gmt":"2023-08-06T08:09:30","slug":"prepare-for-more-turbulence-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aviation-news.info\/?p=7477","title":{"rendered":"Prepare for more turbulence ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"

Aviation news international – A June 2023 research project published by the University of Reading in the United Kingdom and the American Geophysical Union revealed significant increases in clear air turbulence (CAT) over the past 40 years, an ominous indication of what\u2019s likely to come in the future.<\/p>\n

Study co-author Dr. Paul Williams noted the largest increases were over the United States and the North Atlantic, with a 55% increase in severe or greater CAT in 2020 compared to 1979.<\/p>\n

Those changing weather patterns create a greater risk for turbulent skies for all aviation, including general and business aviation.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why officials with the\u00a0National Business Aviation Association<\/a>\u00a0(NBAA) advise pilots to use the latest tools available to predict areas of turbulence.<\/p>\n

One resource is the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and National Weather Service (NWS).\u00a0AviationWeather.gov<\/a>\u00a0offers a wealth of weather information, including convective forecasts and an interactive Flight Path Tool that disseminates all weather products available for a given route, NBAA officials report.<\/p>\n

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<\/center>\u201cWe\u2019ve made tremendous advances over just the past few years, thanks to improved weather forecast models with more data going into [them] and better understanding of the science in these models,\u201d said Jennifer Stroozas, warning coordination meteorologist for the Aviation Weather Center. \u201cThat results in better forecast information across the board, including when evaluating the potential for turbulent conditions.\u201d<\/p>\n

One result of this effort is the Graphical Turbulence Guidance tool that lists SIGMETs (significant meteorological hazards) for turbulence and pilot reports in both graphic and text formats, ranging from 1,000 feet above ground level up to 50,000 feet.<\/p>\n

Graphical airman\u2019s meteorological information, or G-AIRMETs, provide greater understanding not only of areas with predicted turbulence, but also the mechanical factors that drive such forecasts.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve definitely seen improved NOAA and NWS forecasts over the past decade through use of ensemble prediction tools and more data,\u201d said Dean Snell, manager of NBAA Air Traffic Services at the FAA\u2019s Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) in Warrenton, Virginia. \u201cThey\u2019re able to take that information and assemble it in new, more accurate products that provide better predictions.\u201d<\/p>\n

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What Causes Turbulence?<\/h2>\n

Turbulence occurs with rapid variations in wind speed and altitude, creating wind shear.<\/p>\n

\u201cThose can be quite large,\u201d said Williams, who is a professor of atmospheric science in the Department of Meteorology at University of Reading in the United Kingdom. \u201cIn scale, we\u2019re looking for rapid variations in wind speed and altitude that create wind shear.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cYou must understand that air is a fluid, just not one as thick as water,\u201d added Jeff Wofford, former chair of the NBAA Safety Committee. \u201cA river might be nice, smooth and calm, or you might encounter \u2018rapids\u2019 that make the current choppy and bumpy.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe exact same thing happens with the air,\u201d he continued. \u201cAs wind speed increases, and it goes over topographic obstacles like mountains, things get stirred up and that causes eddies and turbulence. Especially in the Rockies during wintertime, you get into mountain wave situations even up at 35,000 feet.\u201d<\/p>\n

A relatively new method to forecast turbulence involves tracking eddy dissipation rates that stimulate turbulence.<\/p>\n

\u201cThese are little swirling air currents or vortices that are about 200 meters in length,\u201d Williams said.<\/p>\n

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<\/center>While current atmospheric models offer a typical resolution of a few kilometers in a three-dimensional mesh, Williams noted these still capture the processes that generate turbulence.<\/p>\n

\u201cOnce we know where the wind shear is from the forecasting model, we have a set of equations we can use to figure out the turbulence,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Clear air turbulence (CAT) poses further challenges.<\/p>\n

\u201cThermal CAT is difficult to predict as it\u2019s on the microclimate scale,\u201d Stroozas said. \u201cOther clear air turbulence is associated with a jet stream, which is more prominent in the wintertime. While we can\u2019t see it, we know that changes in wind speed and direction cause it, and we have models to give us an idea where that may be.\u201d<\/p>\n

Back to Basics<\/h2>\n

While technological improvements have driven advances in predicting turbulence, Stroozas noted that traditional tools like radar, satellite observations, and PIREPs remain at the heart of all aviation weather forecasts.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re able to better drill down on certain areas, and the different algorithms that are now available allow us to watch for different signals to what\u2019s happening as the weather of the day unfolds,\u201d she said. \u201cThere\u2019s also a variety of different weather models that are available to aviation weather forecasters to try to detect some of these signals out in the future, including forecast models specifically for turbulence.\u201d<\/p>\n

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<\/center>Those improved forecasts are most welcome for pilots.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen I did my PhD on turbulence 20 years ago, pilots told me they simply ignored the turbulence forecasts because they were so often wrong,\u201d Williams said. \u201cThey were about 60% accurate back then; now we\u2019re closer to 85%.\u201d<\/p>\n

The NBAA\u2019s Wofford urges pilots to remember the basics from their earliest days of flight training.<\/p>\n

\u201cGet a good weather briefing,\u201d he said. \u201cIf you\u2019re doing a self-briefing, look at all the charts and understand what you\u2019re dealing with for that particular flight.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe most important tool we have is a Mark One-model eyeball,\u201d Wofford added, referring to the old military term for using your eyes. \u201cIf you take a proactive stance versus reactive, you\u2019re going to be a lot better off.\u201d<\/p>\n

According to NBAA officials, the Aviation Weather Center recently launched an experimental trial version of its improved AWC resource that offers an even more informative and easy-to-use interface. You can check it out at\u00a0Beta.AviationWeather.gov<\/a>.<\/p>\n

source: https:\/\/generalaviationnews.com\/2023\/08\/05\/prepare-for-more-turbulence-ahead<\/a>\/<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Aviation news international – A June 2023 research project published by the University of Reading in the United Kingdom and the American Geophysical Union revealed significant increases in clear air turbulence (CAT) over the past 40 years, an ominous indication of what\u2019s likely to come in the future. Study co-author Dr. Paul Williams noted the …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7478,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[96,102],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7477","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-aviation-world","category-featured-en"],"yoast_head":"\nPrepare for more turbulence ahead - aviation news<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aviation-news.info\/?p=7477\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Prepare for more turbulence ahead\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Aviation news international – A June 2023 research project published by the University of Reading in the United Kingdom and the American Geophysical Union revealed significant increases in clear air turbulence (CAT) over the past 40 years, an ominous indication of what\u2019s likely to come in the future. 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