{"id":9967,"date":"2023-11-09T07:13:31","date_gmt":"2023-11-09T07:13:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aviation-news.info\/?p=9967"},"modified":"2023-11-09T07:13:31","modified_gmt":"2023-11-09T07:13:31","slug":"middle-east-airline-fleet-replenishment-slowed-by-program-delays","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aviation-news.info\/?p=9967","title":{"rendered":"Middle East Airline Fleet Replenishment Slowed By Program Delays"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Air aviation news – Delays to major new airliner programs continue to hamper plans for fleet renewal at Middle Eastern carriers. Since the outbreak of Covid, the region’s fleets have remained static but as demand for air travel approaches pre-pandemic levels, one might anticipate an increase in new orders as 2023 draws to a close.<\/p>\n

For instance, as of October 12, Emirates flew 260 aircraft\u2014119 Airbus A380s and 144 Boeing 777s, including 123 777-300ERs and 11 freighters. Back in September 2019, Emirates operated 268 aircraft and awaited delivery of another 231.<\/p>\n

Qatar Airways now has accumulated about 255 Airbus and Boeing aircraft and awaits another 195 on order, while Etihad Airways\u2019 fleet consists of 90 aircraft from the same airframers, with a further 105 units on order. According to Rob Morris, global head of consultancy with Cirium, delays to the 777X program represent a key to fleet replacement, if not expansion, at the region\u2019s major airlines.<\/p>\n

\u201cFleet growth at Emirates, Etihad, and Qatar is inextricably linked to the 777X and A350 programs,\u201d he told\u00a0AIN<\/strong>. \u201cThe timeline for certification of the former remains uncertain and the A350 backlog at all three typically includes small scale in 2024 with concentration from 2025 onwards. Hence, fleet growth is likely to remain limited until greater progress is evident on the B777X.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\"Qatar<\/div>
The Airbus A350 remains a signifcant aircraft in Qatar Airways\u2019 fleet-growth plans. (Photo: Mark Wagner)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
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Dan Taylor, head of consulting with IBA, said that Middle East commercial passenger air travel broadly had returned to pre-Covid levels, despite some significant global headwinds affecting the industry.<\/p>\n

\u201cAirlines are facing unprecedented challenges including high oil prices, supply chain delays and cost inflation, continuing geopolitical instability, and elevated interest rates,\u201d he told\u00a0AIN<\/strong>. \u201cOn the positives, airlines have been able to successfully increase fares as demand for air travel remains strong for now. Delays at the OEMs are having a knock-on impact on airlines\u2019 ability to grow capacity at expected rates, but the production volumes are set to return to 2018 levels by mid-2025.\u201d<\/p>\n

With an expected available seat kilometer (ASK) growth of five percent per year forecast for the next five years, airlines have accumulated a large order backlog to both support the growth and to replace aging aircraft, Taylor believes. There are currently 1,169 commercial aircraft on order for Middle East operators; the largest backlog resides with Emirates, which carries orders for 120 Boeing 777s, 30 Boeing 787s, and 50 Airbus A350s, Taylor explained.<\/p>\n

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\"Etihad\"<\/div>
Etihad operates 90 Airbus and Boeing aircraft and has another 105 on order. (Photo: David McIntosh)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
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Big Two OEMs Struggle to Support Growth<\/strong><\/h2>\n

According to Richard Aboulafia, managing director of AeroDynamic Advisory, Emirates needs to replenish its fleet but delays have confounded that plan. \u201cEveryone else thinks smaller is beautiful: the A350, the B787, and, in Qatar\u2019s case, intriguingly, A321s. When you talk about the challenge and the importance of scaling down and being more flexible in your route network with smaller jets, it really hits you just how badly the aircraft delivery delays damage or delay that strategy,” he commented.<\/p>\n

In his view, turning around the situation will prove critical in the ongoing contest between the world’s top two airframers. \u201cIt could be an irony or just bad news, but Boeing has the better widebody strategy,” he said. “Then again, Boeing’s execution has been much worse. If you win with the A350, you\u2019re probably on safer ground, and more likely to get your replacement jets faster. Will [the B777X arrive in] 2025? Will it be 2026? Who the heck knows? And then the B787, of course, has had problems all of its own. Obviously, the line shut down. It sure looks like it\u2019s a much smaller number of airlines cheering for the return of widebodies.\u201d<\/p>\n

Aboulafia believes Emirates\u2019 fleet in two years\u2019 time will not look radically different from its current form. \u201cThis is a maturing market that faces a lot of competition from upstart players, and whether it\u2019s Turkish or Ethiopian [Airlines], everybody, most of all Air India, wants some of their traffic back,\u201d he said. \u201cEmirates did amazing work expanding over the past 15 to 20 years, going after other people\u2019s traffic, and now they want it back.<\/p>\n

“Then, of course, there\u2019s the giant elephant in the corner: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi wealth fund, and whether they can turn Saudi Arabia into another giant Dubai. That\u2019s a long-term thing. Nevertheless, if you\u2019re in strategic planning at Emirates, you\u2019ve got to be just a little bit terrified.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\"FlyDubai<\/div>
Low-cost carrier Flydubai has grown rapidly and operates 137 Boeing 737 models. (Photo: David McIntosh)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
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Low-cost Carriers Seize New Opportunities<\/strong><\/h2>\n

IBA\u2019s Taylor said the region had seen the rise of low-cost carriers (LCCs) in recent years with the emergence of Flydubai, Air Arabia, and, more recently, WizzAir. \u201cLCCs now make up 13 percent of the overall region\u2019s capacity (ASKs) and with large numbers of aircraft on order; this will only increase,\u201d he said. \u201cLCCs in Europe and North America have been very successful in competing with legacy carriers on mature routes as well as creating new markets such as in the price-sensitive leisure segments.”<\/p>\n

According to IBA, in the Middle East, much of the traffic growth to date has centered on long-haul transfer, using its prime location to connect many global destinations. The UK-based consultancy now sees the LCC airlines creating and growing new domestic and intra-region routes aided by better inter-government traffic rights agreements.<\/p>\n

As a result, regional LCCs have expanded their fleets rapidly with record aircraft orders. \u201cFlydubai has 137 Boeing 737 types and Air Arabia 120 Airbus orders, for example,” Taylor explained. “Airbus is leading the order count in the region with a total of 594 ahead of Boeing\u2019s 560 aircraft. Airbus already has 795 aircraft in service in the region against 727 aircraft for Boeing and the new aircraft orders will only increase the lead.\u201d<\/p>\n

Cirium\u2019s Morris said Flydubai has illustrated the potential for the co-existence of LCCs in the Gulf region, with its network complementing Emirates rather than cannibalizing it. \u201cThe significant order backlog for LCCs across the region\u2014Jazeera, SalamAir, Flyadeal, FlyNas, Air Arabia, and others\u2014indicates the potential in other parts of the region for the LCC model to stimulate and fulfill local demand in the medium- and longer term,\u201d he commented.<\/p>\n

In Cirium’s view, the freighter market in the region has not mirrored Airbus\u2019s dominance with passenger jets. \u201cAirbus does have some progress with Etihad\u2019s A350F commitment but that is relatively small scale when compared to Qatar\u2019s 777-8F order,\u201d Morris said. \u201cIt does seem likely that Boeing will retain freighter dominance in the Middle East for a while longer yet.\u201d<\/p>\n

Saudi Arabia to Challenge Gulf Rivals<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The anticipated launch in 2025 of the new national carrier, Riyadh Air, and plans for fleet expansion by existing players such as Saudia, Flyadeal, and FlyNas would facilitate the arrival of a higher number of visitors and enable tourism growth, according to Al Jazira Capital’s recent analysis of the Saudi Arabian travel and tourism sectors. Plans call for new carrier\u00a0Neom Airlines<\/a>\u00a0to serve the new residential developments in the Kingdom\u2019s northwest region.<\/p>\n

\u201cA national aviation strategy, which was launched last year, aims to connect 250 direct destinations [compared with today’s roughly 100] to and from the Kingdom\u2019s airports, and triple air traffic to 330 million passengers, bringing the Kingdom to first place in the Middle East by 2030,\u201d the Al Jazira Capital report concluded. \u201cUnder the aviation strategy, the government seeks to boost investments of more than $100 billion and transport 500 million passengers by the end of the current decade.\u201d<\/p>\n

Upon launch, Riyadh Air announced in March 2023 its agreement with Boeing for a sales agreement covering seventy-two 787-9 Dreamliners. Of those, 39 involve a firm order, with a further 33 on option.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn addition, Riyadh Air is presently in discussions with both Airbus and Boeing for a large order of narrowbody aircraft,\u201d Abdullah Aljawini, CEO of Dawli Aerospace in Riyadh, told\u00a0AIN<\/strong>. \u201cAn agreed-on delivery schedule between airlines and aircraft manufacturers is legally binding, and variations from the new aircraft delivery dates can result in substantial discounts in favor of the airline.\u201d<\/p>\n

Riyadh Air CEO Tony Douglas anticipates that Riyadh Air\u2019s first flight will depart in mid-2025 and connect the Saudi capital city to more than 100 destinations around the world by 2030. \u201cWe are running on schedule, having already completed several defining milestones,\u201d he told\u00a0AIN<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Initially, Riyadh Air will operate from the city’s existing\u00a0King Khalid International Airport before later moving into\u00a0the new King Salman International Airport, which the kingdom anticipates opening in 2027.\u00a0Given the big-spending moves made in the sporting domains of football, boxing, and golf, by Saudi entities, the airline might have to pay top dollar to attract pilots and other staff, although Douglas chose not to address that point directly.<\/p>\n

\u201cRiyadh Air will become a prominent driver of employment, creating 200,000 job opportunities directly and indirectly and we are recruiting the brightest minds and talent to be part of the airline,\u201d he commented.\u00a0\u201cWe\u2019ve been very encouraged by the response and have already had over 900,000 applications from within the kingdom and around the world. Over the next few months, we will be running a series of recruitment roadshows with a view to recruiting our first intake of cabin crew by the end of 2024, with the first of those joining in the first quarter of 2025.\u201d<\/p>\n

However, Aboulafia said Riyadh Air could find the supply-demand curve a challenge even in such a deep-pocketed market as Saudi Arabia. \u201cThis is an enterprise that\u2019s starting up right in the middle of the worst aviation industry inflation we\u2019ve seen in decades,\u201d he said. \u201cFirst and foremost, it\u2019s pilot wages, but it\u2019s pretty much wages for any skilled workers in the aviation segment. It\u2019s labor. Beyond that, I think it\u2019s the first time we\u2019ve seen any hope of aircraft price increases for decades\u2014in real terms, not in fake \u2018here\u2019s the list price\u2019 terms, but genuine terms. You\u2019re actually talking about things firming up, which of course you have to do because otherwise the OEMs are just going to take a bath”<\/p>\n

source: https:\/\/www.ainonline.com\/aviation-news\/air-transport\/2023-11-08\/middle-east-airline-fleet-replenishment-slowed-program<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Air aviation news – Delays to major new airliner programs continue to hamper plans for fleet renewal at Middle Eastern carriers. Since the outbreak of Covid, the region’s fleets have remained static but as demand for air travel approaches pre-pandemic levels, one might anticipate an increase in new orders as 2023 draws to a close. …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9968,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[96,102],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9967","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-aviation-world","category-featured-en"],"yoast_head":"\nMiddle East Airline Fleet Replenishment Slowed By Program Delays - aviation news<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aviation-news.info\/?p=9967\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Middle East Airline Fleet Replenishment Slowed By Program Delays\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Air aviation news – Delays to major new airliner programs continue to hamper plans for fleet renewal at Middle Eastern carriers. 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